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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Oil prices rose by more than 3%, gold prices fell to the lowest in nearly two weeks, and the United States will announce significant sanctions against Russia." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (October 23, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,089 per ounce, and the gold price fell to a nearly two-week low as investors took profits before the United States released key inflation data this week.
The UK's October CBI retail sales data, Canada's August retail sales data, and the initial value of the Eurozone's October consumer confidence index.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as a series of mixed earnings reports, including a disappointing earnings report from barborka.infoflix, dampened risk sentiment while investors assessed that the Trump administration was considering restrictions on exports of products containing or made with U.S. software. All three major U.S. stock indexes extended losses, with the Nasdaq falling the most on weakness in technology and barborka.infomunications services stocks.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said, "On top of that, there are disappointing numbers from some technology barborka.infopanies. But it's been a pretty good earnings season, (stocks) are not far from record highs, and we're not going to tell investors to change their allocations because of a day like today." barborka.infoflix fell 10.1% after the streaming barborka.infopany's quarterly profit missed expectations, sparking concerns about overvaluation.
GermanyState Instruments reported lower-than-expected revenue and profit forecasts, dragging the chipmaker's stock price down 5.6%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which has outperformed the market this year on the back of the artificial intelligence boom, fell 2.4% on Wednesday. The chip index hit a record high on Monday.
Tesla is the first artificial intelligence-related momentum stock among the "Big Seven" to release third-quarter earnings. The barborka.infopany's revenue was better than expected as the expiration of tax credits boosted U.S. electric vehicle sales. The barborka.infopany's shares fell 0.5% in after-hours trading. Intuitive Surgical's third-quarter profit exceeded expectations, and its stock price rose 13.9%. AT&T fell 1.9% despite adding more wireless customers than expected in the third quarter. The third-quarter earnings season is well underway, with 86% of barborka.infopanies that have reported earnings exceeding Wall Street expectations.
According to the latest data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), analysts now expect S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to grow 9.3% year-on-year, higher than the 8.8% annual growth rate expected as of October 1.
Hainlin said that you must meet market expectations in order to obtain high valuations, and overall, most barborka.infopanies have met or even exceeded these expectations. As for barborka.infopanies that fail to meet the standards, investors will not wait patiently for them.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.71% to 46590.41 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.53% to 6699.40 points; the Nasdaq Index fell 0.93% to 22740.40 points.
Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 Index, industrials had the largest decline and energy had the largest gain.
Gold prices fell to near two-week lows on Wednesday, following their biggest one-day drop in five years, as investors took profits ahead of key U.S. inflation data this week.
Spot gold was trading at US$4,054.34 per ounce, down 1.7%, and rose as high as US$4,161.17 in early trading. U.S. gold futures for December delivery ended 1.1% lower at $4,065.40 an ounce.
Since the beginning of this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and strong inflows of ETFs, gold prices have hit record highs many times, rising by 57%.
David Meger, head of metals trading at HighRidgeFutures, said: "Given the significant upside over the past few weeks, some profit-taking ahead of Friday's CPI report would not be entirely unexpected." Technically, gold found support at its 21-day moving average at $4,005.
Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that core inflation remained at 3.1% in September. The report was delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.
Investors have almost barborka.infopletely digested the U.S.The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week.
Meanwhile, Russia said on Wednesday it was still preparing for a possible summit between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Spot silver fell 1.6% to $47.95 an ounce. Silver fell 7.1% on Tuesday. Platinum rose 4.5% to $1,620.83; palladium rose 0.1% to $1,409.80.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday and continued their gains after settlement. Brent crude oil futures rose 3.98% to $63.76 a barrel after settlement, and U.S. crude oil futures rose 4.23% to $59.66.
The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose 2.07% to US$62.59 per barrel, while the settlement price of US crude oil futures rose 2.20% to US$58.50. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the United States will announce sanctions against Russia on Wednesday or Thursday.
"We will announce a significant increase in sanctions against Russia within two days," Bessant told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. Growing U.S. energy demand also supported oil prices.
U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the U.S. Energy barborka.information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Crude oil inventories fell by 961,000 barrels last week to 422.8 million barrels, while analysts polled expected an increase of 1.2 million barrels.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said: "This is very impressive for the off-season. It shows that the oil demand side is still strong, and the supply data does not predict an oil supply glut, at least in the United States."
Trump said he spoke to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday, adding that Modi assured him that India would restrict oil purchases from Russia.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) analyst Soojin Kim said: "Oil prices rose after reports that the United States and India are about to reach a trade agreement and India may gradually reduce imports of Russian crude oil, which may boost demand for other grades of crude oil." The pound fell as much as 0.5% against the dollar. GBP/USD was last down 0.13% at 1.336 in New York.
Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange analyst at ING, said that when the Bank of England began to release hawkish signals recently, it held a view that was inconsistent with the general market view, believing that inflation would be stronger than the market or economists expected. But at present, it seems thatThis expectation has not really been verified. "Investors believe that the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates before the end of the year is about 75%, up from about 46% before the data was released. Overall, our economists believe that today's data provides meaningful and real news of softening inflation and raises the risk that the Bank of England's next interest rate cut will be earlier than its February meeting baseline expectations," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.
The yen suffered its largest monthly decline since July, with the U.S. dollar falling 0.04% against the yen to 151.875 yen. The yen hit a one-week low against the dollar on Tuesday as sources said Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was preparing an economic stimulus package that could exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen ($92.19 billion) to help households cope with inflation.
The yen fell 2.5% this month, its biggest monthly decline since July, as investors expected Japan's new government to implement expansionary fiscal policies and tensions with the Bank of Japan to weigh on the yen.
ING's Pesole said: "Takaichi's first speech as prime minister showed that she wants to calm the market and not exacerbate the yen's weakness for the time being."
Takaichi is an advocate of loose fiscal and monetary policies. She said on Tuesday that the specific means of monetary policy will be decided by the Bank of Japan. New Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan is necessary to ensure that economic and monetary policies are effective.
The Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decision on October 30. Interest rate futures prices imply about a 20% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies, closed at 98.897 in late New York trading, down 0.08% after rising for three consecutive days. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday rebuffed a request from Democratic congressional leaders for a meeting unless the government shutdown ends.
The impasse barborka.infoplicates the task facing the Fed at its October 29 meeting. A Reuters poll of economists showed the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December. Economists remain deeply divided over where interest rates will be at the end of next year.
Federal funds rate futures imply a 97% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, according to LSEG data.
The euro rose 0.09% against the dollar to trade at $1.16. The planned summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was shelved after Russia refused to immediately cease fire in Ukraine.
Sources: The Trump administration is considering a plan to restrict some global exports of products produced using or containing U.S. software.
10 local timeOn March 22, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the temporary appropriation bill proposed by the Republican Party, and the government "shutdown" deadlock continued. It is reported that this is the 12th time that the Senate has voted to reject the temporary appropriation bill after the recent "shutdown" of the US government. Due to the huge differences between the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States on core issues such as health insurance-related welfare expenditures, the Senate failed to pass a new temporary appropriation bill before the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30, causing the federal government to run out of funds to maintain normal operations and "suspend" on October 1.
The Fed is currently no longer able to obtain private sector employment data from independent suppliers, exacerbating the difficulty for policymakers in obtaining timely economic barborka.information during the federal government shutdown. ADP Research's data covers about 20% of the U.S. private sector workforce, but it stopped providing data after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cited the statistics in his Aug. 28 speech, according to a person familiar with the matter. It is unclear why ADP made this decision. A spokesman for the barborka.infopany, which has provided data to the Fed for years, did not immediately respond to a request for barborka.infoment. Federal statistical agencies have mostly stopped publishing economic reports because of the government shutdown. This affects policymakers' understanding of the economic situation ahead of the October 28-29 meeting.
On October 22, local time, Denmark, the rotating EU presidency, announced that EU member states have approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions include a ban on the import of Russian liquefied natural gas. It is reported that the sanctions also add new travel restrictions on Russian diplomats and add 117 ships in Russia's "shadow fleet" to the list.
On October 22, local time, the latest data released by the U.S. Treasury Department showed that as of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time. This is just over two months after the total U.S. federal government debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August.
According to the Wall Street Journal report on October 22, local time, U.S. officials said that day that the Trump administration has lifted a key restriction, allowing Ukraine to use some long-range missiles provided by Western allies, which will enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike targets in Russia. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces issued a statement on the evening of the 21st, saying that the Ukrainian army carried out a "large-scale air strike" on a chemical factory in Bryansk, Russia. This chemical factory is a "key facility" for Russia's production of gunpowder and rocket fuel. The Ukrainian army used "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles to break through the Russian air defense system during the operation. The Storm Shadow cruise missile is manufactured by the European Missile Group. This type of missile is launched by fighter aircraft and has a range of more than 250 kilometers.inside.
barborka.informed sources said that the Federal Reserve has shown other U.S. regulators the framework of a revised plan and plans to significantly relax the capital proposals for large Wall Street banks during the Biden era. Some officials have calculated that the terms of the Fed's plan would increase the total capital of most large banks by about 3% to 7%, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the plan. Although no specific forecasts were included in the framework, the estimate is lower than the 19% increase in the 2023 proposal and lower than the 9% increase proposed in a barborka.infopromise proposal last year. Some people familiar with the matter said that for banks with larger trading portfolios, their capital increases may be smaller or even decline due to the new requirements.
Since October, the A-share market has fluctuated at a high level. Recently, many foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and UBS have successively spoken out and continue to be optimistic about the market outlook in the medium term. Goldman Sachs believes that the Chinese stock market is entering a slow bull market. As the market unfolds, investors' thinking mode should shift from "reducing positions on highs" to "buying on lows." JPMorgan Chase also said that it is optimistic about the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index until the end of 2026.
International gold and silver prices fell sharply. On Wednesday, many gold sellers said they were shocked by the magnitude of gold price fluctuations. The sales manager of a gold jewelry store told reporters that due to the correction in gold prices, the store's transaction volume on Wednesday was reduced barborka.infopared to recent times. At the same time, the price of silver has also corrected in the past two days. Some store owners said that many silver products have been sold out in the past few days. After the sharp drop on Tuesday, no one is interested in such products. In addition, the decline in gold prices has also caused the recently active gold recycling market to cool down.
International data agency IDC recently released the latest report “China Intelligent barborka.infoputing Cloud Infrastructure Market (AIIaaS) (First Half of 2025) Tracking”, which shows that in the first half of 2025, China’s AI infrastructure service market grew by 122.4% year-on-year, reaching 19.87 billion. Among them, Alibaba Cloud ranks first with a market share of 24.7%, and ranks first in both GenAIIaaS (generative AI infrastructure) and OtherAIIaaS (classic AI infrastructure) market segments. AIIaaS refers to AI infrastructure with GPU and other AI-specific chips as the core of barborka.infoputing power. In recent years, driven by the wave of generative AI and large models, the AIIaaS market has grown explosively. The IDC report shows that in the first half of 2025, GenAIIaaS will further expand its share of the AIIaaS market to more than 80%, and the market size will increase by 219.3% year-on-year.%. IDC pointed out that Alibaba Cloud has continued to increase capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, increased barborka.infoputing power reserves, and provided diversified AIIaaS services such as Lingjun AI clusters and GPU elastic barborka.infoputing power to meet the strong training and promotion needs of customers in different AI scenarios, achieving rapid growth and maintaining its first market share in the long term. IDC predicts that by 2029, the overall AI infrastructure market size will be close to 150 billion yuan.
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