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CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut

Post time: 2025-06-12 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The CPI in May was lower than expected in total, and Trump once again called for a 100 basis point interest rate cut." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On June 12, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.47. On Wednesday, the US dollar index plunged in the session and finally closed down 0.41% at 98.638 as a barborka.infoprehensive lower than expected CPI data boosted market rate cut expectations. The yield on the US Treasury fell sharply across the board, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury closing at 4.427%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield falling below the 4% mark, closing at 3.956%. Spot gold rose in the short term and hit the $3360 mark after the CPI was announced, and then quickly gave up its gains. However, it rose again in the late trading due to the sharp rise in the Middle East situation, and finally closed up 0.98% to close at $3355.13/ounce; spot silver pulled back for the second consecutive day, finally closing down 0.77% to $36.25/ounce. International crude oil soared as Trump said he was "not confident" in nuclear talks with Iran, and the United States was preparing to reduce the size of its mission to Iraq due to security concerns. WTI crude oil continued to rise, finally closing up 4.2% to $67.18 per barrel, a new high in more than two months; Brent crude oil closed up 4.11% to $69.46 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.47. Affected by moderate inflation data, the US dollar index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, and fell to 98.42 in the early trading on Thursday, a new low in the past week, not far from the six-week low of 98.35, which was set last week. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 98.50 level, it will move towards a support level in the 98.00–98.20 range.

CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1505. The euro/dollar surged sharply in the North American period, but it still did not break the 1.1500 mark after the U.S. (US) released a lower-than-expected inflation report, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs in the short term. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made headlines, despite their failure to push the euro/dollar pair. Technically, if this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the resistance level in the range of 1.1555–1.1570.

CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3572. The GBP/USD received some bullish tailwinds on Wednesday, erasing the gains from the previous trading day and climbing back to the 1.3550 level. Lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the initial tariff reference period strengthens investors' hopes of a Fed rate cut later this year, while U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation data will follow on Thursday. Technically, breaking through the 1.3550 level will open up the way to test the resistance level of 1.3620–1.3640.

CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3367.05. This wave of rally is not only boosted by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, but is also closely related to the sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investor expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the risk of possible conflict in the Middle East are jointly driving a surge in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut(图4)

Technical: Since the gold price fell last week's high of $3,400, it has formed an A-B-C correction wave structure. The current price hovers around $3335, with the above $3345 resistance (June 10 high) suppressing significantly. The 4-hour chart shows that the RSI indicator hovers at a neutral level of 50, suggesting insufficient momentum. If it breaks through $3345, it may test the pressure of the reverse trend line of $3375; on the contrary, if it loses $3290 (the low on June 9), it will further fall into the support range of $3245 (the multiple highs and lows coincide with the lows in mid-May).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading was 67.Nearby 14. Oil prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday, reaching their highest point in more than two months after news that the United States is preparing to evacuate the Iraqi embassy due to intensified security issues in the Middle East.

CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut(图5)

Technical: Supported by geopolitical tensions, easing trade concerns and stable demand fundamentals, the crude oil outlook remains bullish, provided that WTI can close above $66.45. If a breakthrough is confirmed, it may attract new buying and push the price towards the $68 mark. However, if the current increase cannot be maintained, oil prices may fall back to the $63 range.

Forex market trading reminder on June 12, 2025

①14:00UK's three-month GDP monthly rate in April

②14:00UK's April manufacturing output monthly rate

③14:00UK's April seasonally adjusted barborka.infomodity trade account

④14:00UK's April industrial output monthly rate

⑤20:30UK's initial request for unemployment benefits in the week from the United States to June 7

⑥20:30UK's May PP I annual rate

⑦20:30 US May PPI monthly rate

⑧22:30 US to June 6 EIA natural gas inventory

⑨The next day, the Federal Reserve released its quarterly financial account report

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